Gold Price Forecasting Based on Time Series Using the LSTM Deep Learning Architecture
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37859/coscitech.v6i2.9980
Abstract
Gold is one of the most influential commodities in the global economy. Its high price volatility poses a significant challenge for investors, financial analysts, and policymakers in formulating effective strategies and making accurate decisions. Therefore, an accurate prediction method is needed to forecast future gold price movements. This study aims to forecast gold prices using a deep learning approach with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm. The LSTM model is capable of learning long-term dependencies in time-series data, making it highly suitable for modeling complex and dynamic financial data. The data used in this study consists of daily historical gold prices obtained from reliable sources. A preprocessing phase was carried out to clean and normalize the data before training the model. Furthermore, this study compares the performance of the LSTM model with the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) model to examine differences in prediction accuracy. Evaluation metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) were used to assess model performance. The results show that the LSTM model provides more accurate predictions compared to MLP, with lower error values and better model stability. In conclusion, the deep learning approach, particularly the LSTM model, can serve as an effective alternative for gold price forecasting and support data-driven decision-making in the financial sector.
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