Comparison of SARIMA and Prophet models for forecasting international tourist arrivals to Indonesia based on monthly time series data
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37859/coscitech.v6i3.9963
Abstract
Forecasting international tourist arrivals is a critical aspect of tourism planning and policy-making. This study compares two time series forecasting methods, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Prophet in modeling and predicting the monthly number of international tourists visiting Indonesia, based on data from January 2018 to May 2025. The methodology includes data preprocessing, stationarity testing using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and selecting optimal SARIMA parameters based on the lowest AIC. Model performance was evaluated using MAE and RMSE on the testing data from January to May 2025. The results indicate that SARIMA outperforms Prophet, with a lower average MAE of 1336.41 and RMSE of 1616.67, compared to Prophet’s MAE of 5591.33 and RMSE of 5739.71. Based on this evaluation, SARIMA was selected as the best model and used to project international tourist visits for the period June to December 2025. These findings highlight SARIMA’s superior ability to capture seasonal patterns in tourism data, making it a reliable tool for short-term tourism forecasting in Indonesia.
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