Peramalan Kedatangan Wisatawan ke Suatu Negara Menggunakan Metode Support Vector Machine (SVM)

  • Harun Mukhtar Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau
  • Rahmad Gunawan Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau
  • Amin Hariyanto Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau
  • Syahril Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau
  • Wide Mulyana Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau
Keywords: Traveler, Time Series, Forecasting, Support Vector Machine, Kernel

Abstract

Tourism is one of the most promising ecosystems for economic sectors worldwide. A strong tourism sector directly contributes to the country's national income, fights unemployment, and improves the balance of payments. Tourism development can be seen from the increase in arrivals to a nation; based on data obtained from the UNWTO from 1995-2019, it has increased and decreased. The sudden increase and decrease in tourists will have positive and negative impacts. Forecasting is an activity to predict events that will occur in the future by taking data from the past. So this study will expect tourist arrivals to a country using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) method. SVM has properties about maximizing margins and kernel tricks to map nonlinear data. The results obtained in this study indicate that SVM Confidence is 86.3%, has a MAPE value of 56.00%, and an RMSE worth of 11126.36 from the total data of 53 countries. And forecasting is carried out in 5 countries with the highest tourist visits. The results obtained are excellent: SVM Confidence of 99.13%, a MAPE value of 2.78%, and an RMSE value of 2783.57.

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Published
2022-12-19
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