Pengujian dan Pemilihan Model Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia Dengan Uji Non-Nested

  • Alvis Rozani Universitas Bung Hatta
  • Nurul Huda Universitas Bung Hatta
  • Neng Murialti Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau
Keywords: keynesian theory, monetary theory, balance of poyment, international reserve, ecm, non nested test

Abstract

This research has the purpose of analyzing the Indonesian Balance of Payments by tracing international reserves based on Keynesian and Monetary theory. This research uses using ECM data analysis technique to see short run and long-run relation of macroeconomic variables to international reserve changes and a nested test to see the causality inter variables. The result of data analysis using the ECM technique on Keynesian and Monetary models shows a significant ECT value. This value means that according to the Keynesian model, it will take around a quarter for the adjusting process to attain a new equilibrium on the international reserve, while according to the Monetary model, it will take around six quarters or one and a half years. Based on the non-nested test, it is found that the Monetary model is fitter than the Keynesian model in analyzing Indonesian Balance of Payments behavior

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Alonso, Jose A and Carlos Garcimartin (2010), A New Approach to Balance of Payments Constraint: Some Empirical Evidence, Journal of Post Keynesian, Vol. 21, No. 2, p. 259-282.

Arystanbekov, K (2009), Quality of Kazakanstan’s Economic Policy and Balance of Payment, Problems of Economic Transition, Vol. 51, No. 10, pp. 63-77

Barnichon, Regic (2008), International Reserve and Self Insurance Against External Shocks, IMF Working Paper.

Ball, Donald A, et, al (2005), Bisnis Internasional: Tantangan Persaingan Global, Terjemahan oleh Syahrizal Noor. Buku Satu Edisi 9. Salemba Empat. Jakarta.

Barnhill, T.M. dan G. Kopits (2003), Assessing Fiscal Sustainability under Uncertainty, IMF Working Paper.

Both, Anne and Peter McCawley (2011), Ekonomi Orde Baru, Terjemahan Boediono, Yogyakarta: LP3ES

Boediono (2009), Ekonomi Indonesia Mau ke Mana?, Kumpulan Esai Ekonomi, KPG & Freedom Institute, Jakarta.

Cuthbertson, K. (1988), The Demand for M1: A Forward-Looking Buffer Stock Model, Oxford Economic Papers, 40:110-131

Davidson, J and J. Ireland (1987), Buffer Stok Models of the Monetary Sector, National Institute of Economic Review, August:67-71

Dornbusch, Rudiger (1980), Open Economy Macroeconomics, Basic Books, Inc.Publishers, New York.

Dornbusch, Rudiger, Stanley Fisher & Richard Start (2004), Macroeconomics, 8th Edition, The McGraw-Hill/Irwin. USA.

Duasa, Jarita (2000), The Malaysian Balance of Payments: Keynesian Approach Versus Monetary Approach, Working Paper JEL Classification: C2; E0;E6. p. 1-13.

Edwards, Sebastian (2001), Does the Current Account Matter. NBER Working Paper No. 8275.

Engel, Robert F dan C.W.J Granger (1991), Long Run Economic Relationships Readings in Cointegration. New York: Oxford University Press.

Frenkel, J.A., Th., Gylfason, dan Helliwell, J.F (1980), A Synthesis of Monetary and Keynes Approaches to Short-run Balance of Payments Theory, The Economic Journal, September, 582-592.

Gregorius, Nasiansenus Masdjojo (2009), Analisis Dinamika Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia Stdudi Empiris di Indonesia, Disertasi, PPS Undip.

Gujarati, Damodar N (2003), Basic Econometric. Singapore: McGraw-Hill Inc.

Gultom, Miranda (2007) Essay in Macroeconomic Policy: The Indonesian Experience. Jakarta: PT. Gramedia Pustaka Utama.

Haris, Richard (1995), Cointegration Analysis in Econometric Modelling, Prentice Hall.

Hashemzadeh, Nozar & Loretta Wilson (2006), The Dynamics of Current Account and Budget Deficits in Selected Countries if the Middle East and North Africa, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, pp. 111-129.

Havrilesky, Thomas M. dan John T. Boorman (1976), Current Issues In Monetary Theory and Policy. Illinois: AHM Publishing Corporation.

Hill, Hall (1996), Transformasi Ekonomi Indonesia Sejak 1966: Sebuah Studi Kritis dan Komprehensif, Terjemahan: Tim PAU Ekonomi UGM, Yogyakarta: PT. Tiara Wacana.

Howard, Michael & Nlandu Mamingi (2002), The Monetary Approach to The Balance of Payments: An Application to Barbados, The Singapore Economic Review, Vol. 47, No. 2 (2002) p. 213-228.

Insukindro (1989), Dynamic Specification Applicable to The Indonesian Monetary Sector: A Review. Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia, pp.115-126.

Insukindro dan Aliman (1999), Pemilihan dan Bentuk Fungsi model Empirik: Studi Kasus Permintaan Uang Kartal Riil di Indonesia, Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia, Vol. 2.

Kavaos, Ardalan (2003), The Monetary Approach to Balance of Payment: A Taxonomy With A Comprehensive Reference to the Literature, Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research. p. 39-61.

Kennedy, Peter (1992), A Guide To Econometrics, The MIT Press

Kuncoro, Haryo (2011), Ketangguhan APBN Dalam Pembayaran Utang, Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, Bank Indonesia, April

Kurnia, Ahmad Syakir (2005), Analisis Interdependensi Neraca Transaksi Berjalan–Neraca Modal Indonesia: Pendekatan Model Vector Autoregressive dan Vector Error Correction 1981.1-2002.3, Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan. Vol.10, April, 43-66

Kurniti, Yati dan A.V. Hardiyanto (2002), Rupiah Exchange Rate Behavior and Alternative Calculation of Equlibrium Real Exchange Rate, Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, Vol. 5, No. 1, June.

Krugman, Paul R & Maurice Obstfeld (2006), International Eonomics: Theory & Policy, Seven Edition, Pearson International Edition.

Kuncoro, Mudradjad, 2009. Manajemen Keuangan Internasional: Pengantar Ekonomi dan Bisnis Global. Edisi 2. BPFE. Yogyakarta.

Lanciaux, Bernadette (1990), An Institutional Analysis of the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payment, Journal of Economics Issues, Vol. XXIV No. 2 June, p. 433-441.

Landreth, H. and D. Colander (2002), History of Economic Theory. Houghton-Mifflin. Boston.

Langenus, G (2006), Fiscal Sustainability Indicators and Policy Design in the Face of Ageing, Working Paper, National Bank of Belgium.

Ljubaj, Igor et al (2010), Capital Inflow and Efficiency of Sterilisation-Estimation of Sterilisation and Offset Coefficient, Working Paper, Croation National Bank.

Lohano, Heman D dan Fateh M. Mari (2006), Testing Market Integration in Regional Onion Markets of Pakistan: Application of Error Correction Model in the Presence of Stationarity. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. Issue I.

Hakim, Lukman (2000), Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhui Cadangan Devisa Indonesia 1989.1-1997.4, Media Ekonomi, Vol. 6 No. 1, Hal. 667-682.

Makin, Anthony J (2005), A Monetary Model of Exchange Rate and Balance of Payments Adjustment, Economic Issues, Vol. 10, pp. 25-36.

Mankiw, N. Gregory (1997), Macroeconomic, Third Edition, Worth Publisher, New York.

Marie Dufour, Jean and Eric Renault (1998), Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Theory, Econometrica, Vol.66, No.5. Sept.

McCallum, Bennet T (1989), Monetary Economics Theory and Policy, Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.

Nopirin (1998), Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia 1980-1996: Suatu Pendekatan Keynes dan Monetarist, Kelola. No.18: 32-44.

Published
2023-12-31
How to Cite
Rozani, A., Huda, N., & Murialti, N. (2023). Pengujian dan Pemilihan Model Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia Dengan Uji Non-Nested. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Ekonomika, 13(2), 211-221. https://doi.org/10.37859/jae.v13i2.6139
Abstract views: 87 , PDF downloads: 86