Pengujian dan Pemilihan Model Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia Dengan Uji Non-Nested
Abstract
This research has the purpose of analyzing the Indonesian Balance of Payments by tracing international reserves based on Keynesian and Monetary theory. This research uses using ECM data analysis technique to see short run and long-run relation of macroeconomic variables to international reserve changes and a nested test to see the causality inter variables. The result of data analysis using the ECM technique on Keynesian and Monetary models shows a significant ECT value. This value means that according to the Keynesian model, it will take around a quarter for the adjusting process to attain a new equilibrium on the international reserve, while according to the Monetary model, it will take around six quarters or one and a half years. Based on the non-nested test, it is found that the Monetary model is fitter than the Keynesian model in analyzing Indonesian Balance of Payments behavior
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